By Wayne Allensworth
American Remnant supports President Donald Trump. He is fighting the good fight on behalf of our people. But Trump is receiving false or distorted information on some issues. He needs to reevaluate and think through what he says about Russia, for instance. Someone — perhaps Vice President J.D. Vance — must tell the president that his assumptions about Russia, especially its economic condition, are false. They could prolong, not shorten, the Ukraine war.
Trump has been open about his willingness to talk to Russia, his understanding of Russia’s position, and about the Biden Administration’s role in provoking the Ukraine war. Putin has praised the president’s courage and has agreed that if Trump, and not Biden, had been president for the last four years, then there is a good chance there would have been no Ukraine crisis. As I wrote earlier, both men are realists and pragmatists. They understand one another and could establish a good working relationship that will be important in stabilizing the world situation, allowing Trump to concentrate on righting the course of the American ship. I also believe the president when he, whether talking about the Middle East or Ukraine, laments the loss of life in wars that he intends to help end. And I believe him when he says that America should avoid further conflicts.
There is, however, one problem with his view of Russia. Trump appears to believe that Russia is in far worse shape economically than it actually is and that threatening tariffs will force Moscow to the negotiating table. He’s wrong. Apart from Putin’s being famous for not reacting to pressure, Russia has adapted to the tsunami of Western economic sanctions of recent years. Hydrocarbon sales and war production have helped prop up the Russian economy. Russia has found ways to circumvent some sanctions and has adopted a policy of import substitution that encourages domestic production. Russians are resilient and have shown many times in the past that they can absorb shocks and get on with their lives.
Richard Connolly, a senior analyst at Oxford Analytica and an associate fellow at the Center for New American Security, has exploded some false assumptions about the alleged impending collapse of the Russian economy. “Russia’s economic resilience,” wrote Connolly, “is defying expectations,” enabling the Kremlin to maintain its war effort as its forces advance on the battlefield. Meanwhile, some Western analysts continue to claim that Russia’s “war economy” is faltering. Problem is, that isn’t happening. As Connolly observed, a shallow Russian recession in 2022 was followed by adaptation to new sanctions. The Russian economy “exceeded nearly all expectations” in 2023 with 3.6 percent growth. The economic momentum continued last year, with output around 3.6-4 percent. True, Russia faces economic challenges, including a manpower shortage as many working age men are diverted to the war. Russia must make use of its smaller labor force more efficiently. What’s more, the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to combat inflation fueled by wartime spending.
But if Western leaders expect Russia to collapse anytime soon, they better think again. As Connolly noted, the tight labor market has been beneficial to Russian workers. Unemployment was at a record post-Soviet low of 2.3 percent last fall. Real wages have soared, as has consumer spending. Soldiers are enjoying pay increases, which has benefitted many of the lesser developed Russian regions. Labor productivity continues to rise. Even inflation has its advantages, Connolly wrote, as firms expand supply by investment in regions where prices are increasing faster. State-subsidized loans and mortgages have helped as well.
The extent of Russia’s “war economy” is also exaggerated. Again, Connolly points out a misconception held by many observers in the West: While Russian military spending is relatively high, about 20 percent of state spending combined at both the national and regional levels, it is comparable to U.S. spending during the Vietnam war. Current spending is well below that of the Soviet period. Despite war spending, Russia’s budget deficits are relatively modest, clocking in at 1.5-2.9 percent since 2022.
Thus, as Connolly wrote, Russia’s economic situation is “desperate, but not serious.” True, long-term prospects may not be rosy as economic stagnation might set in, but for the foreseeable future, Russia is hardly in dire straits. “Hopes of an imminent collapse,” he wrote, “are unlikely to be realized.” Therefore, Russia’s alleged hopeless economic situation will not force it to the negotiating table. President Trump appears to believe that he can persuade the Saudis to help bring down oil prices, thus undercutting Russian income and curtailing war spending. But Reuters is reporting that the Saudis and other oil producers probably won’t alter their production plans. And if Trump wants to “drill, baby, drill,” oil prices must remain at a level that makes domestic oil production profitable. A balance of production and pricing to consider might complicate the president’s plans.
Putin’s popularity in Russia is as solid as ever. According to Levada Center polling, which Russia watchers believe is reliable, despite inflation, the war, and other difficulties, in January, 71 percent of poll respondents said the country was moving in the right direction. Putin’s approval rating was at 87 percent. Levada Center’s Aleksey Levinson has also noted that Russians want peace, but not at any price: They want peace and victory. When asked whether they would support the president if he announced that he would end the war, for instance, 65 percent of men, and 79 percent of women said they would support him. But when Levada asked whether they would support ending the war at the cost of conceding territorial gains, only 24 percent of men and 36 percent of women would support him.
Consider: Russian elites would like to see this war and economic sanctions end sooner rather than later, but that many of them are profiting from it in spite of the sanctions. Historic Russian fears of instability mean that a majority of all elites are likely to remain loyal to Putin. Ordinary Russians strongly support their president. Thus, the Western war party’s hopes for an economic crisis prompting regime change in Russia are illusory.
As I’ve written before, if Trump wants to bring the Russians to the negotiating table before a total Ukrainian collapse, then the best lever he has is holding out the prospect of expanded talks. Those talks could end the war, but, more importantly from Moscow’s point of view, and, I think, from our own, could revise European security architecture to account for Russian concerns. That would include talks on troop deployments, medium-range missiles, and missile defense systems, as well as Ukraine’s neutrality. Trump would have to get the Europeans on board, no small task in itself. I don’t believe Putin wants this war to drag on indefinitely, but the Russians are winning. Trump will need incentives to persuade them to talk.
The Russians hold most of the cards. Yet Moscow’s uncertainty about how a panicked West might react if Ukraine collapses might work in favor of talks. A negotiated settlement before that happens would make for a more stable outcome. And it would prevent Trump’s international credibility from being damaged. Russia is not Colombia.
Chronicles contributor Wayne Allensworth is the author of The Russian Question: Nationalism, Modernization, and Post-Communist Russia, and a novel, Field of Blood. For thirty-two years, he worked as an analyst and Russia area expert in the US intelligence community.
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