By Wayne Allensworth
White House permission for Ukraine to use ATACMS missile systems to strike targets in Russia, apart from territories annexed by Moscow, was in the works for some time. President Joe Biden was reluctant to greenlight such strikes, and wished to require certain restrictions on how those missiles could be used. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the use of such systems, which involve the participation of American specialists, would be an act of war.
Biden has finally said yes to the Ukrainians. The Russians claim that ATACMS missiles were launched against targets in Russia’s Bryansk region on Tuesday, and that five of the six missiles were destroyed and the sixth damaged. Some observers believe that the point of Biden’s move was to help the Ukrainians hold on to a segment of Russia’s Kursk region as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, and that Biden wants to limit the use of ATACMS to strikes that can help achieve that aim. The New York Times claimed that the authorization was partly a response to North Korean troops taking part in the war on Russia’s side. Donald Trump, Jr., however, fears that Biden’s authorization is a sign that the “military industrial complex” wants to start World War III before his father takes office. I don’t doubt that some war hawks would like to prolong the war as long as possible — and prevent Trump from ending it. And indeed, escalating the war could make it much harder to end it. The mantra that some of Trump’s cabinet nominees are “Russian assets” is part of that game.
The Blob is out to spite President-elect Donald Trump, but European elites have grown weary of the war and, as noted, some in Washington apparently believe ATACMS strikes will help the Ukrainians in future negotiations, which seem inevitable at some point. A “high level French military official,” for instance, told reporters that using the missiles would not change the balance of forces on the battlefield. It’s a war the Ukrainians cannot win.
I doubt that we will see a knee-jerk aggressive reaction from the Kremlin. Apart from Russian warnings about the potential for escalation, my sense is that Putin will remain calm and wait for Trump to take office. As I noted earlier, despite claims from Swamp Creatures and legacy media about the Russian president being the reincarnation of Adolf Hitler, Putin tends to be cautious and is inclined to avoid direct confrontation with the West. He will react if he thinks he has been backed into a corner, which is how we got into the present situation. But he knows that Trump will take office in January, and that the new administration would like to end U.S. involvement in this very dangerous war.
My take: The Kremlin will continue warning about escalation, and drop hints about possible retaliation, but that Putin will try and wait this out. That said, there is always the danger that Trump will take office with the war in Ukraine escalating, making it harder to extricate ourselves from that quagmire. The danger of Putin striking back at American personnel or installations would increase if the Washington establishment blocks Trump’s efforts to end the war.
Events can always spin out of control with catastrophic consequences.
Chronicles contributor Wayne Allensworth is the author of The Russian Question: Nationalism, Modernization, and Post-Communist Russia, and a novel, Field of Blood. For thirty-two years, he worked as an analyst and Russia area expert in the US intelligence community.
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