By Wayne Allensworth
Initial reports on an event of this magnitude are usually garbled or erroneous, and we will undoubtedly learn more about what took place in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday soon enough. But, as of Monday morning, there is enough to go on to offer some preliminary thoughts.
Trump probably put this election away by surviving the attack and showing some grit in doing so. The photo of him pumping his fist was spread instantly by social media. His base, already energized, could expand to include a lot of people sitting on the fence. Events like this have a way of doing that. Following the shooting, the gamblers are betting heavily on Trump. As far as doubts about the integrity of the electoral system, Trump might have a big enough lead on Election Day that any chicanery would be hard to pull off.
It’s worth reiterating that the hateful propaganda directed against Trump — and his voters, starting when Hillary Clinton dubbed them “deplorables,” and Barack Obama, adopting his usual detached air of superiority, smugly opined about their “clinging” to guns and Bibles — contributed to creating a crisis atmosphere that could spur an unstable person or a fanatical ideologue to violence. In June, The New Republic featured a cover depicting Trump as Hitler and Biden has whined repeatedly that he is an existential threat to democracy. Otherwise sensible people apparently believe that Trump commands legions of ersatz stormtroopers. Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. And the Washington Beltway exists in a bubble of unreality. As I’ve written previously, the hatred the establishment feels for Trump is irrational, visceral, and impossible to counter. Even mentioning Trump’s name can set them off. Judging by social media posts, there were some who were disappointed that the assassin’s bullet didn’t find its mark, no matter what the consequences.
Having said that, I advise against getting worked up about an assassination conspiracy. I’ve lived long enough to know that competence is much less common than one might think, and that incompetence is all too common. Even the most basic elements of competent job performance often fall through the cracks. For now, I’m assuming that’s what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania. From what I gather, Secret Service agents tend to be dedicated and capable, but they are not characters from a Stallone or Schwarzenegger 80s action flick. They make mistakes. And the local police had a role in this as well.
Which brings us to the shooter, apparently another in a lengthening list of alienated, enraged young people. I’m surprised by the (affected?) dismay displayed by journalists asking what the “motive” for the shooting could have been. A high school classmate described 20-year-old Thomas Crooks as a “loner” who was bullied in school. I’m assuming that he was somewhat like Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, the Columbine shooters, though apparently no red flags were associated with his previous behavior. An atomized schizoid society, rife with alienation and bombarded with a victimology narrative, provides fertile ground for producing school shooters and Travis Bickle types. The crushing sense of ennui in a rudderless world plays into this as well. The question of motive seems almost extraneous to the core sickness that drives such people.
We shouldn’t forget Corey Comperatore, who was killed in the attack on Trump, or the other people who were injured. Say a prayer for them. Empathy is an emotion that gets lost or misplaced too often in a milieu that is driven by the constant stream of panic and outrage spraying out of our media platforms like poisonous water from a hose.
I’ve stated often enough that I do not believe that the sicknesses that ail our increasingly chaotic society can be ameliorated solely or primarily by political action. At the same time, I recognize that within their limits, political actions could theoretically do something to at least give sane people some room to get on with our lives. Two examples would be putting an end to the anarchy at our southern border and attempting to mediate an end to the Ukraine war.
So, let’s construct an optimistic scenario in which maybe one or both might come to pass: Trump wins big in November. His enemies have been restrained somewhat by the failed assassination attempt and have toned down their long scream against all things Trump. After his inauguration, Trump uncharacteristically appoints and listens to sensible people who want to achieve those ends. He then initiates legislation/executive action and/or negotiations aimed at dealing with the border and Ukraine. Congress and the bureaucracy, feeling the heat from a big Trump win, might cooperate with him, at least for a while. And the rest of us would get a respite. Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate is a good sign. I hope he will give Vance a prominent role in spearheading his administration. Maybe the shooting will have an impact on Trump’s behavior, making him more circumspect. But Trump is still Trump and is easily distracted. And the establishment remains dominated by globalists and will likely renew its assault on Trump as soon as practical. I’m not counting on anything.
When that scenario occurred to me, I recalled another hopeful moment in our recent history. Following the shock of the terrorist attacks on 9/11, some of us hoped that the disaster would spark a review of U.S. foreign policy, as the attacks were blowback for endless and careless interventions in the past. Maybe our immigration policies would come under scrutiny as well. Alas, neither came to pass. In fact, the establishment Blob simply redoubled its efforts by invading Iraq and expanding the powers of the surveillance state. Mass immigration with virtually no screening of “migrants” resumed. So here we are. But we can hope. In the meantime, do the best you can to live a good life. You can have one even under very difficult conditions.
Chronicles contributor Wayne Allensworth is the author of The Russian Question: Nationalism, Modernization, and Post-Communist Russia, and a novel, Field of Blood. For thirty-two years, he worked as an analyst and Russia area expert in the US intelligence community.
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